There isn't a lot of clues laying around on how to fix this. in the messages log, ftp leaves this message:
Jan 24 19:56:26 navi wu.ftpd: connect from email@example.com
Jan 24 19:56:28 navi ftpd: ACCESS DENIED (not in any class) TO moonunit [10.0.0.3]
Jan 24 19:56:28 navi ftpd: FTP LOGIN REFUSED (access denied) FROM moonunit [10.0.0.3], patrick
Jan 24 19:56:50 navi ftpd: FTP session closed
telnet is not as verbose and only shows that i connected to the telnet daemon.
I'm digging through the logs now and it seems that the first day it was broken was Jan 21. I will update as i learn more.
Looked at my journal from about the 17th (which has a successful ftp connection on it) to the 21st. I didn't do anything to the system during those days.
This is very puzzling.